2010 FBS Positional Analysis: Quarterbacks

NCAA Football Betting Lines

06/23/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - They probably get too much credit when things are going good, and too much blame when things aren't. But that's the nature of the quarterback position at every level, and the FBS is certainly no exception.

With that said, here are the top signal-callers heading into the 2010 college football season.

JAKE LOCKER, WASHINGTON

There was a real chance that Locker would have been an early pick in this year's NFL Draft, as the St. Louis Rams, among others, were reported to be extremely high on him. Locker has everything needed to be a cornerstone of a NFL organization for a decade or so, including prototypical size (6-3, 225) and experience in a pro-style offense at WU. He has a quick release and strong arm, with the ability to make things happen with his legs as well. Locker just missed out on a 2,000-yard passing, 1,000-yard rushing campaign in 2007, then rushed for just under 400 yards in 2009, while upping his passing number to the 2,800 range. If he continues to improve as a passer (completed 47.3 percent in 2007, 53.8 percent in abbreviated 2008 campaign and 58.4 percent in 2009), his status in the eyes of scouts will only improve.

RYAN MALLETT, ARKANSAS

He won't run away from anyone, but at 6-7, 238 pounds, Mallett doesn't need to. Mallett transferred from Michigan, where he started as a freshman before exiting after Rich Rodriguez's offense made him obsolete. After sitting out 2008, Mallett earned the starting job last spring and never looked back. He completed a modest 55.8 percent of his passes, but did throw for 3,624 yards, with 30 TDs and just seven interceptions in head coach Bobby Petrino's system. A strong-armed pocket-passer that the pros covet, the junior could certainly feel the gravitational pull of the NFL by mid-season if all goes well.

TERRELLE PRYOR, OHIO STATE

Pryor has been on this list since the day he stepped on the field in Columbus, and perhaps even before. The expectations were so high that it was almost impossible for Pryor to live up to the hype, but the 6-6, 233-pound junior has continued the maturation process within the OSU offense. During the 2009 campaign, the former blue-chipper threw for just over 2,000 yards and 18 TDs, while rushing for 779 yards and seven more scores. Expect more of the same in 2010. He won't lead the nation with gaudy passing numbers, but should be a regular on highlight reels week-in and week-out, as Ohio State will once again be in the hunt for the Big Ten title and factor in the big BCS picture as the season nears a conclusion.

KELLEN MOORE, BOISE STATE

Perhaps the best quarterback in the country, with the least amount of hype. Moore has been a model of consistency since stepping onto the blue turf in Boise a couple of years ago, and has been a major factor in his program crashing the BCS party of late. He lacks ideal size (6-0, 187), but makes up for it with great football instincts, competitive nature and superb leadership skills. In two seasons, Moore has completed over 66 percent of his passes with over 7,000 passing yards, 64 TDs and a mere 13 INTs. With the heightened national profile afforded Boise State this season (the Broncos should be a preseason top-five program), expect to hear plenty from Moore in 2010.

CASE KEENUM, HOUSTON

A product of the system in Houston? Probably, though there is still no denying the impressive nature of the numbers Keenum has put up with the Cougars. The 6-2, 210-pound All-American has led the nation in total offense the last two years, throwing for over 10,000 yards in his sophomore and junior campaigns combined, with 88 TD passes over that span. Keenum threw for a jaw-dropping 5,671 yards a year ago, with a 70 percent completion rate. It's hard to imagine his numbers plummeting this year.

ROBERT GRIFFIN, BAYLOR

The face of Baylor football, there may not be a more athletic QB in this group than Griffin, and that includes Pryor. As a freshman in 2008, the 6-2, 210- pounder threw for 2,091 yards, with 15 TDs and just three INTs, while rushing for 843 yards and 13 more scores, en route to All-American honors. He lasted just two-plus games into his sophomore season before being lost for the year with a knee injury, and will have to prove that he can recover his reputation as one of the fastest QBs in college football history. A hardship waiver got Griffin's sophomore year back, and in even better news, he participated in all non-contact drills in the spring.

JACORY HARRIS, MIAMI-FLORIDA

After showing flashes of brilliance as a freshman in 2008, Harris took it to another level as a sophomore last year, his first as the full-time starter. Harris completed around 60 percent of his passes, for 3,352 yards and 24 TDs, emerging as the face of the Hurricanes offense. Harris and the Canes will try to take another step forward this season in their hoped-for return to college football elite status. For his part, you can expect another jump in terms of production from the athletic Harris, as Miami pursues an ACC title in 2010.

COLIN KAEPERNICK, NEVADA

Yet another quarterback from a non-BCS program that can do a little bit of everything. With great size (6-6, 220) and extreme athleticism, Kaepernick has been a big fish in the small pond that is the WAC. Last season, the Wolf Pack's field-general passed for over 2,000 yards with 20 TD passes, while eclipsing 1,000 yards rushing (1,183), with an additional 16 scores. There isn't a whole lot of national attention lavished on the Nevada program, but Kaepernick may change that in 2010. Expect to see plenty of good things from the signal-caller in Reno this season.

LANDRY JONES, OKLAHOMA

Thrown into the toughest of situations a year ago, when Heisman-winner Sam Bradford went down with a shoulder injury, Jones actually performed admirably as a freshman in Norman. Named the Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year, the 6-2, 210-pounder completed almost 60 percent of his passes, for 3,198 yards, with 26 TDs. The Sooners struggled to an 8-5 record, but it was difficult to pin those struggles on Jones, who seemed to improve with each passing week. With a strong arm and a nice feel for the game, expect inflated numbers from Jones this season, as OU becomes relevant in the big picture again.

JERROD JOHNSON, TEXAS A&M

Johnson already holds numerous single-season passing records at Texas A&M, and heads into his senior season looking to climb the career charts as well. With attention-grabbing 6-5, 243-pound size, Johnson is coming off a stellar season in which he completed almost 60 percent of his passes, for 3,579 yards and 30 TDs, while adding another 500 yards on the ground and eight more TDs. If the Aggies are going to make a move in the Big 12 this year, the talented Johnson will be the main reason why.

OTHERS TO KEEP AN EYE ON: John Brantley (Florida), Cameron Newton (Auburn), Zach Collaros (Cincinnati), Christian Ponder (Florida State), Andy Dalton (TCU), Matt Barkley (USC), Tyrod Taylor (Virginia Tech).

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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