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05/21/2010 - Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Houston Astros pitcher Roy Oswalt has reportedly asked to be traded.
According to the Houston Chronicle, Astros general manager Ed Wade said Oswalt's agent, Bob Garber, contacted team owner Drayton McLane on Thursday with the request.
The Chronicle quoted Wade as saying the team wants to win with the players currently on the roster, but the club may explore other possibilities at the appropriate time.
The Astros have the National League's worst record entering Friday's games, 14-27, and the team's lineup has not given Oswalt much run support.
In each of his nine starts this season, the right-hander has thrown at least six innings and given up no more than three runs. Oswalt has posted a 2.66 earned run average, but his record stands at 2-6, as Houston has scored no more than four runs in any of his starts. The Astros have scored two runs or fewer in each of his losses.
Oswalt is under contract through the 2011 season, with a club option for 2012. The 32-year-old has spent his entire career with the Astros, who selected him in the 23rd round of the 1996 draft.
<< Third straight truck pole for Busch
Concord, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kyle Busch will start on the pole for Friday's
North Carolina Education Lottery 200 Camping World Truck Series after posting
the fastest lap in qualifying at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
Busch turned a lap of
<< Teenager Spieth makes cut at Byron Nelson
Irving, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jordan Spieth, a 16-year-old amateur, became the
sixth-youngest player ever to make a cut on the PGA Tour Friday at the Byron
Nelson Championship.
Spieth, a high-school junior, completed a first-round, two
<< Shin, Tseng move on at Match Play
Gladstone, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Top-seeded Jiyai Shin and fourth-seeded Yani
Tseng both won their second-round matches Friday to advance to the third round
of the Sybase Match Play Championship.
Shin was a 3 & 1 winner over 32nd seed
<< Cubs bring Howry back to bullpen
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Cubs have signed veteran relief
pitcher Bob Howry to a one-year contract.
He is expected to be in uniform Friday night for the opener of a three-game
interleague set against the Texas Rangers
Brewers activate OF Gomez >>
Minneapolis, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Milwaukee Brewers have activated
outfielder Carlos Gomez from the 15-day disabled list.
Gomez is slated to bat second in the Brewers lineup Friday night for the first
of a three-game interleague
Giants place P Medders on DL >>
Oakland, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Francisco Giants placed pitcher Brandon
Medders on the 15-day disabled list with right knee inflammation.
The move is retroactive to May 20, and the team purchased Santiago Casilla's
contract from Tri
Mets place Maine on DL >>
Flushing, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Mets have placed pitcher John
Maine on the 15-day disabled list with right shoulder weakness.
Maine was removed from his start Thursday against Washington after just one
batter. He issued
Riegger moves in front in Raleigh >>
Raleigh, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - John Riegger fired a seven-under 64 on Friday
to move atop the leaderboard after two rounds of the Rex Hospital Open.
Riegger finished 36 holes at 12-under 130 and is two strokes ahead at the TPC
Wakefield P
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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